To Court or Shun the Wealth of Nations
Sovereign wealth funds have emerged in recent months as the world’s power brokers. They have used their tremendous wealth to make big cross-border investments and prop up some of Wall Street’s best-known firms.
The New York Times recently published insightful article: "A PROMINENT American financier, weary from weeks on the money trail that leads through Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Doha and Dubai, called in recently with these impressions from the road: “They are scratching their heads, they don’t want to be underappreciated or made a fool of,” he said of the executives managing more than $1 trillion in sovereign and central bank funds.
“They invest in these financial institutions, lose their shirts and then they are criticized in Congress.” They are really upset, he said.
And get this, he added: “If you are a Saudi, you have to get your visa signed off by Homeland Security. I mean, why would you want to bail out a bank — you couldn’t even come to the closing dinner.”
The relationship between client and banker is perhaps the most delicate of Wall Street’s minuets, so this executive asked to remain anonymous.
But his concerns are shared by more and more Wall Street executives who criticize the increased scrutiny imposed on sovereign funds, which invest the wealth of their governments. The scrutiny ranges from calls for increased transparency to Congressional inquiries into their tax status, and runs the risk of driving away the world’s largest pool of capital just when the United States economy needs it most.
“Why are we attacking sovereign funds when the core problem is hedge fund transparency,” said Laurence D. Fink, the chief executive of BlackRock, which manages $1 trillion in assets, and who has sovereign funds among his largest clients. “No one questioned them when they bought the billions of dollars of our bonds. I mean, they are financing our deficit. What this scrutiny will do is force them to invest elsewhere.”
As always with Wall Street, there is much self-interest going on here. For decades, sovereign funds, which now top $2 trillion in assets and are expected to surpass $12 trillion by 2015, have been major clients of financial firms. According to a recent survey, half of that $2 trillion is externally managed.
Besides paying fees, funds have become something of a lender of last resort for banks traumatized by the credit crunch. The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, managing an estimated $600 billion to $800 billion, has paid $7.6 billion for a 4.9 percent stake in Citigroup.
The Kuwait Investment Authority, the oldest of all the sovereign funds, which manages about $250 billion, has invested $5 billion in Citigroup and Merrill Lynch, while Morgan Stanley and Blackstone have received cash infusions from the China Investment Corporation.
All told, according to Dealogic, a financial services research firm, sovereign funds invested $48 billion in deals in 2007 and $16 billion so far this year.
Still, there may be something to Wall Street’s lament.
With the balance sheets of many investment banks exposed to toxic, illiquid mortgage-linked securities, and with the collapse of Bear Stearns so fresh, no one is discounting the possibility of more visits by chief executives to distant capitals. The disclosure on Tuesday that UBS will seek new funds of about $15 billion underscores this view.
The question is whether the funds, especially those in the Middle East, where capital is accumulating the fastest and where sensitivities surrounding disclosure have been most acute, will be as eager to invest the second time around.
Citic Securities, an investment bank with ties to the Chinese government, provided a vivid reminder of the perils of buying stakes in Wall Street banks before the depths of their problems are known. Citic committed to invest $1 billion in Bear Stearns, but luckily never closed the deal.
What sovereign funds will do is a question that looms all the larger, given that the United States economy is weak and growth remains relatively vibrant in economies like those of China, India, Brazil and Turkey.
“There is a concern in the financial community that there have been signals of hostility to sovereign wealth investors,” said Todd M. Malan, the president of the Organization for International Investment, a lobbying group representing corporations investing in the United States. “That has the potential to be negative for the U.S. economy at a moment that we need foreign investment.”
There have been recent signs of an accommodation addressing concerns in Washington that the funds need to disclose more. For their part, the funds want to preserve their tradition of not showing too much of their investment hand. Abu Dhabi and Singapore reached an agreement with the Treasury in which their funds would invest using commercial, not political, criteria and the United States would not impose restrictions on such investments.
While the accord stated the obvious — the two funds are recognized as the most professional of the sovereign funds — it was hailed by lawmakers. Still, rumblings persist that Congressional inquiry may continue.
Earlier this month, the two ranking members of the Senate Finance Committee sent a letter to the Joint Committee on Taxation, a nonpartisan group in Congress that monitors tax policy, asking that it examine how these entities are taxed so as to help “understand the role of tax policy in the sovereign wealth fund puzzle.”
Currently, there is no tax imposed on passive income accruing to foreign governments from investments in the United States. But any hint that sovereign funds may have their tax status questioned would be one more reason for them to take their business elsewhere.
“These inquiries are broadly healthy,” said Douglas Rediker, a former investment banker who studies sovereign funds for the New America Foundation. “But we should be doing our fair share to see that we get investment rather than pushing it away.”
The suspicion surrounding these funds has mainly focused on the Middle East — a holdover, perhaps, from the failure of the proposed sale of six United States seaports to DP World of Dubai.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait are by nature cautious, sensitive to maintaining the broad contours of their long strategic relationship with the United States. Even so, some comments by the executives of the funds betray frustration.
“Sovereign wealth funds have been found guilty before being proven innocent,” said Muhammad al-Jasser, the vice governor of the Saudi Monetary Agency, earlier this year. The agency oversees $300 billion in government funds and has yet to make a publicly disclosed investment in a troubled American financial institution.
“There is a lot of worry about sovereign wealth funds, but all of them are assumptions,” said Bader al-Saad, who heads the Kuwait Investment Authority, at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland in February.
So far, there is no sign of a buyers’ strike. And the region’s continued support of a policy that links Middle East currencies to the sinking dollar suggests a willingness to help United States financial policy.
But, as in all complicated relationships, there are limits.
“Since 9/11, Middle Eastern investors feel very frustrated in how they have been treated in the U.S.,” said Shibley Telhami, a professor of Middle Eastern studies at the University of Maryland. “The question is if the lingering bitterness from the port deal is going to outweigh the stretched hand of needy institutions. So far, it has not.”
“They invest in these financial institutions, lose their shirts and then they are criticized in Congress.” They are really upset, he said.
And get this, he added: “If you are a Saudi, you have to get your visa signed off by Homeland Security. I mean, why would you want to bail out a bank — you couldn’t even come to the closing dinner.”
The relationship between client and banker is perhaps the most delicate of Wall Street’s minuets, so this executive asked to remain anonymous.
But his concerns are shared by more and more Wall Street executives who criticize the increased scrutiny imposed on sovereign funds, which invest the wealth of their governments. The scrutiny ranges from calls for increased transparency to Congressional inquiries into their tax status, and runs the risk of driving away the world’s largest pool of capital just when the United States economy needs it most.
“Why are we attacking sovereign funds when the core problem is hedge fund transparency,” said Laurence D. Fink, the chief executive of BlackRock, which manages $1 trillion in assets, and who has sovereign funds among his largest clients. “No one questioned them when they bought the billions of dollars of our bonds. I mean, they are financing our deficit. What this scrutiny will do is force them to invest elsewhere.”
As always with Wall Street, there is much self-interest going on here. For decades, sovereign funds, which now top $2 trillion in assets and are expected to surpass $12 trillion by 2015, have been major clients of financial firms. According to a recent survey, half of that $2 trillion is externally managed.
Besides paying fees, funds have become something of a lender of last resort for banks traumatized by the credit crunch. The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, managing an estimated $600 billion to $800 billion, has paid $7.6 billion for a 4.9 percent stake in Citigroup.
The Kuwait Investment Authority, the oldest of all the sovereign funds, which manages about $250 billion, has invested $5 billion in Citigroup and Merrill Lynch, while Morgan Stanley and Blackstone have received cash infusions from the China Investment Corporation.
All told, according to Dealogic, a financial services research firm, sovereign funds invested $48 billion in deals in 2007 and $16 billion so far this year.
Still, there may be something to Wall Street’s lament.
With the balance sheets of many investment banks exposed to toxic, illiquid mortgage-linked securities, and with the collapse of Bear Stearns so fresh, no one is discounting the possibility of more visits by chief executives to distant capitals. The disclosure on Tuesday that UBS will seek new funds of about $15 billion underscores this view.
The question is whether the funds, especially those in the Middle East, where capital is accumulating the fastest and where sensitivities surrounding disclosure have been most acute, will be as eager to invest the second time around.
Citic Securities, an investment bank with ties to the Chinese government, provided a vivid reminder of the perils of buying stakes in Wall Street banks before the depths of their problems are known. Citic committed to invest $1 billion in Bear Stearns, but luckily never closed the deal.
What sovereign funds will do is a question that looms all the larger, given that the United States economy is weak and growth remains relatively vibrant in economies like those of China, India, Brazil and Turkey.
“There is a concern in the financial community that there have been signals of hostility to sovereign wealth investors,” said Todd M. Malan, the president of the Organization for International Investment, a lobbying group representing corporations investing in the United States. “That has the potential to be negative for the U.S. economy at a moment that we need foreign investment.”
There have been recent signs of an accommodation addressing concerns in Washington that the funds need to disclose more. For their part, the funds want to preserve their tradition of not showing too much of their investment hand. Abu Dhabi and Singapore reached an agreement with the Treasury in which their funds would invest using commercial, not political, criteria and the United States would not impose restrictions on such investments.
While the accord stated the obvious — the two funds are recognized as the most professional of the sovereign funds — it was hailed by lawmakers. Still, rumblings persist that Congressional inquiry may continue.
Earlier this month, the two ranking members of the Senate Finance Committee sent a letter to the Joint Committee on Taxation, a nonpartisan group in Congress that monitors tax policy, asking that it examine how these entities are taxed so as to help “understand the role of tax policy in the sovereign wealth fund puzzle.”
Currently, there is no tax imposed on passive income accruing to foreign governments from investments in the United States. But any hint that sovereign funds may have their tax status questioned would be one more reason for them to take their business elsewhere.
“These inquiries are broadly healthy,” said Douglas Rediker, a former investment banker who studies sovereign funds for the New America Foundation. “But we should be doing our fair share to see that we get investment rather than pushing it away.”
The suspicion surrounding these funds has mainly focused on the Middle East — a holdover, perhaps, from the failure of the proposed sale of six United States seaports to DP World of Dubai.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait are by nature cautious, sensitive to maintaining the broad contours of their long strategic relationship with the United States. Even so, some comments by the executives of the funds betray frustration.
“Sovereign wealth funds have been found guilty before being proven innocent,” said Muhammad al-Jasser, the vice governor of the Saudi Monetary Agency, earlier this year. The agency oversees $300 billion in government funds and has yet to make a publicly disclosed investment in a troubled American financial institution.
“There is a lot of worry about sovereign wealth funds, but all of them are assumptions,” said Bader al-Saad, who heads the Kuwait Investment Authority, at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland in February.
So far, there is no sign of a buyers’ strike. And the region’s continued support of a policy that links Middle East currencies to the sinking dollar suggests a willingness to help United States financial policy.
But, as in all complicated relationships, there are limits.
“Since 9/11, Middle Eastern investors feel very frustrated in how they have been treated in the U.S.,” said Shibley Telhami, a professor of Middle Eastern studies at the University of Maryland. “The question is if the lingering bitterness from the port deal is going to outweigh the stretched hand of needy institutions. So far, it has not.”
/By Landon Thomas Jr., The New York Times/
2 comments:
Nationalisation, hyperinflation, SCO and Iran war
SCO Chief welcomes Iran's membership. (SCO is the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation)
OPEC President Chakib Khelil said at a conference in London on Tuesday that "the downfall of the dollar" was a major concern for the cartel, says The Los Angeles Times. (1) (OPEC is the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries)
The People’s Bank of China wants now to diversify the reserves (the backing) of the yuan
and bought last week a 1.6% stake in France’s Total.
IF
one puts today's news together
1) The Arabian Gulf oil principalities say they'll stick with the U.S. dollar until they achieve monetary union in 2010 [...]
2) The World Gold Council and a commodities group in Dubai announce a gold exchange-traded fund to be operated according to Islamic financial principles.
3) And the International Monetary Fund announces that it has formalized its plan to sell 403 tonnes of gold.
[THEN]
it may be hard not to wonder if the oil states have not made a deal with the United States to continue for another two or three years their cooperation with the U.S. scheme of rigging the currency and gold markets in exchange for whatever gold is to be unloaded in the name of making the IMF solvent -- hard not to wonder whether this is not all part of an orderly hedging of the oil world's dollar exposure,
says the Gold Antitrust Action Committee. (2)
The capitalist system is now so deformed by debt that it requires ever lower interest rates to keep going. It survives on perma-bubbles. Monetary rigour at this late stage would endanger democracy. How did we ever let matters reach this pass?, asked Ambrose Evans-Pritchard on April 02 in the Daily Telegraph. (3)
Today, Thursday, 10 April, US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson speaks before the Council of Institutional Investors Spring Meeting. (4)
In that speech he will further outline his plan to hyper-inflate the US economy and to hyper-regulate, and thus nationalise, the whole US banking sector.
The Paulson plan for more concentration of economic power in the Fed and regulation is being felt daily in the troika of oil for gold, euro and/or dollar.
By trying to contain this dynamics at infinitum, our masters are providing an excellent opportunity for all gold accumulators.
In order to delay the day of reckoning as far as possible, our masters have no other option than to attack Iran.
No the Oil Bourse is not the only reason.
Iran is moving to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), said the Russian news agency op 24 March 2008 (5)
and the SCO Chief welcomes Iran's membership, said IranMania.com on 29 March 2008.(6)
The SCO is an intergovernmental organisation which was founded on June 14, 2001 by leaders of the People's Republic of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Except for Uzbekistan, the other countries had been members of the Shanghai Five; after the inclusion of Uzbekistan in 2001, the members renamed the organization. Many have looked at this organisation as a counter to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). (7)
Four countries India, Mongolia, Pakistan and … Iran have observer status at the SCO.
As I said, Iran is now moving to join the SCO and the SCO Chief welcomes Iran's membership.
Even though US presidential candidate for the Republican party, John McCain, was still arguing on 10 february 2007 that we live in a MULTIPOLAR SYSTEM (8),
we seem to be evolving towards a UNIPOLAR SYSTEM whereby the SCO will be the only pole left.
"What is a uni-polar world?” asked Russian president Putin on 10 February 2007. “No matter how we beautify this term, it means one single centre of power, one single centre of force and one single master," he said. (8)
The joining of Iran is at present leading to world tensions which are similar to these preceding the First World War.
Is it then really surprising that Another
(http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/archives/another1.html
- note the sarcasm of the site’s name – USA-gold )
currency will take over as world reserve currency?
This is important as the People’s Bank of China wants now to diversify the reserves (the backing) of the yuan
and bought last week a 1.6% stake in France’s Total. (9)
Ivo Cerckel
ivocerckel AT siquijor DOT ws
ENDNOTES
(1)
Oil jumps to a new high as the dollar withers again
Oil at $120 a barrel soon?
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2008/04/oil-at-120-a-ba.html
(2)
Is gold going east to keep oil principalities in line?
By: Chris Powell, Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
5:10pm ET Monday, April 7, 2008
http://news.goldseek.com/GATA/1207634640.php
[...]
If one puts today's news together ...
1) The Arabian Gulf oil principalities say they'll stick with the U.S. dollar until they achieve monetary union in 2010 [...]
2) The World Gold Council and a commodities group in Dubai announce a gold exchange-traded fund to be operated according to Islamic financial principles.
3) And the International Monetary Fund announces that it has formalized its plan to sell 403 tonnes of gold. ...
... it may be hard not to wonder if the oil states have not made a deal with the United States to continue for another two or three years their cooperation with the U.S. scheme of rigging the currency and gold markets in exchange for whatever gold is to be unloaded in the name of making the IMF solvent -- hard not to wonder whether this is not all part of an orderly hedging of the oil world's dollar exposure.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
(3)
Bear market rallies only delay day of reckoning
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Last Updated: 12:13am BST 02/04/2008http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/03/31/ccview131.xml
(4)
http://www.reuters.com/article/economicNews/idUSN22ODAY20080409
(5)
Iran moves to join Shanghai Cooperation Organization
12:42 | 24/ 03/ 2008
http://www.en.rian.ru/world/20080324/102052243.html
(6)
SCO Chief welcomes Iran's membership
Saturday, March 29, 2008 - ?2005 IranMania.com
http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?NewsCode=58722&NewsKind=Current%20Affairs
LONDON, March 29 (IranMania) - Secretary-General of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Bolat Nurgaliyev on Thursday welcomed Iran's bid for membership in the Organization.
"Iran's claim for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization full membership will not bring any negative moments in relations with the regional and international organizations," Nurgaliyev said.
Nurgaliyev said Iran's official claim was received in accordance with regulations of the SCO Charter.
According to the Secretary-General, since 2005 Iran has held the observer's position in the Organization, equally with India, Pakistan and Mongolia.
Along with this, these states participate in the work of structural departments of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, he added.
"The SCO is not a military and political alliance and all the speculations that the organization resists the existing military and political groups are quite groundless. The military training conducted by the member countries have anti-terrorist character. We tend to cooperate with the international structures and regional organizations which have interests in Eurasia," Nurgaliyev noted.
(7)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organization
(8)
Saturday, 10 February 2007, 21:42 GMT
Putin's speech: Back to cold war?
By Rob Watson
BBC defence and security correspondent, Munich
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/europe/6350847.stm
SNIPS
President Putin accused the US of establishing, or trying to establish, a "uni-polar" world.
"What is a uni-polar world? No matter how we beautify this term, it means one single centre of power, one single centre of force and one single master," he said.
+
In today's multi-polar world, there is no place for needless confrontation, and I would hope that Russian leaders understand this truth," Senator McCain said.
(9)
China buys 1.6% stake in Total
By Richard McGregor in Beijing, Peggy Hollinger in
Paris and Henny Sender in Hong Kong
Financial Times, April 3 2008 13:53 | Last updated: April 4
2008 03:35
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8a6a78a2-0179-11dd-a323-000077b07658.html
SNIP
The body that manages the bulk of China’s $1,650bn in foreign exchange reserves has bought a 1.6 per cent stake in France’s Total, the fourth-largest oil group, in a sign of its more aggressive approach to investing the funds under its control.
OPEC Speculation
OPEC cannot stop arguing that speculation is the cause of the present level oil prices. (1) (2)
I am not even a dwarf on the international power scene and I am not able to analyse all the forces which are influencing the price of oil.
I do however know that:
In normal times, the effect of the speculator on oil prices is to level them off. (3)
In normal times of plenty, when oil prices are low, the speculator by buying up and storing oil causes them to rise. (3)
In normal times of lack of oil, when oil prices are high, the speculator sells and causes prices to fall. (3)
The effect on him is to earn profits.
This is not villainous; on the contrary, the speculator performs a valuable service. (3)
Yet instead of honouring the speculator,
OPEC is reviling him,
thereby forgetting that prohibiting oil speculation has the same effect on society as preventing squirrels from storing up nuts for winter – it leads to starvation. (3)
Why is OPEC doing this?
Could the US dollar and the imminent pricing of oil in Honest Money
be the answer?
Ivo Cerckel
NOTES
(1)
Oil slips from record, Saudi says supplies ample
Reuters
Thursday April 10 2008
http://www.guardian.co.uk/feedarticle?id=7452896
SNIP
OPEC ministers will attend an industry gathering in Rome later this month, but are not expected to call a meeting there to review output policy. Members of the cartel argue SPECULATORS are driving up prices, and say an extraordinary meeting before the scheduled September meeting is not needed.
(2)
Oil steady at $110 on dlr, Saudi; China supports
Fri 11 Apr 2008, 6:10 GMT
By Felicia Loo
http://africa.reuters.com/wire/news/usnSP169323.html
SNIP
Ali al-Naimi, oil minister for top OPEC producer Saudi Arabia, on Thursday shrugged off calls from consumer nations to boost production, saying that supplies were adequate and record prices were not due to a lack of oil. [
Saudi Arabia, the world's top crude exporter, will supply a little more oil to one of its Asian customers next month, but shipments to at least three other lifters will be unchanged, refinery sources said on Friday. [
The cartel will attend an industry gathering in Rome later this month, but are not expected to call a meeting there to review output policy.
Members of the cartel argue SPECULATORS are driving up prices, and say an extraordinary meeting before the scheduled September meeting is not needed. (Editing by Ramthan Hussain)
(3)
Walter Block, “Defending the Undefendable”, New York, Fleet Press Corporation, 1976, p. 175
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