The United States has welcomed the Arab peace plan, and Israel has hailed a "revolutionary change" in the Arab position, but it is still hard to find anyone who believe peace is about to break out in the conflict at the heart of the violent instability of the Middle East.
Arabs revived at an Arab summit on Thursday their 2002 offer to the Jewish state of normal ties with Arab countries in return for full withdrawal from land it occupied in 1967, a "just solution" for Palestinian refugees and a Palestinian state.
Israel rejected the plan in 2002 but Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said the Riyadh summit was "serious" and he was ready to talk peace with Saudi Arabia and other U.S. allies. The U.N. chief showed up to back the plan, and Washington, which is trying to revive the peace process, said it was "very positive."
Analysts said it was a good step, when measured against the usual Arab inaction, but there was a long way to go and a lot of creative diplomacy needed to bring about historic compromises that have eluded generations of statesmen and peace brokers.
"I think there will be a concerted effort to make this work ... but it will come up against the same obstacles as previous efforts, namely whether Israel is willing to withdraw to 1967 boundaries or not," said Mouin Rabbani, Amman-based senior analyst at the International Crisis Group.
"At present, I don't think there is any real evidence this U.S. administration is one that will enforce the principle of full peace for full withdrawal."
Analysts also cast doubt on Olmert's ability to muster public support for any dramatic peace moves, given that backing for his government has plummetted since last year's inconclusive Lebanon war.
INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS?
The U.S. administration has shown little interest in advancing Middle East peace through much of George W. Bush's presidency, but has recently made renewed efforts.
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has regularly toured the Middle East, and recently secured agreement on regular meetings between Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Washington says the Arabs should use the opportunity to engage Israel.
This time, however, Arabs are trying to make their own opportunities. Whereas in 2002, the Arabs did little to market their plan, this time, they have set up a committee led by U.S.-ally Saudi Arabia to follow it up, possibly paving the way for Arab states that have no ties to Israel to open up channels.
Israel has acknowledged the potential for talks with Saudi Arabia, but analysts and diplomats say the kingdom, home to Islam's holiest shrines and already under attack from al Qaeda for its pro-Western policies, will have to tread carefully. Direct meetings with Israel are unlikely soon.
While Israel has long called for talks on the terms of peace, for Arab League countries, only three of which have full diplomatic ties with Israel, just talking comes with a price.
Israel has objections to most of the key elements of the Arab plan, including the proposed return to de facto frontiers that existed before the 1967 war, the right of return for Palestinians displaced with the creation of Israel in 1948 and the fate of Arab East Jerusalem, annexed by Israel in 1967.
Those are issues Sunni-led Arab states feel they cannot give up. But U.S. failure to pacify Iraq and the spread of Shi'ite Muslim Iran's influence in Lebanon, Iraq and the Palestinian territories has damaged American prestige in the Arab world.
Few Arabs believe this U.S. administration, which is close to Israel and faces strong opposition at home, has either the will or the ability to resolve the historic conflict.
"We have an international quartet of the United States, United Nations, Russia and the EU and that didn't go anywhere," said Rime Allaf, at Chatham House think-tank in London.
"The fact that they (Arabs) relaunched this initiative without any significant changes means that they do not expect much ... The Israelis have rejected this before so I don't think it is going to go very far."
DEEP DIVISIONS
Israel's response aside, Arabs themselves are not all agreed on the principles the Arab peace initiative endorses.
Hamas, the Islamist group heading the Palestinian government, is uneasy about the plan's failure to explicitly endorse the refugees' right to return to homes lost after the creation of Israel.
Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal agreed in pre-summit meetings with Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah not to openly oppose the initiative but politicians who attended the summit say the right of return was a bone of contention for Palestinians.
Several Damascus-based Palestinian groups who oppose the Palestinian peace accords with Israel also condemned the plan.
And while Arab states agreed to revive the plan unchanged, any alterations that come through future talks would have to be reapproved and that could unravel the united Arab front Saudi Arabia wants to lead, analysts say. After all, Israel has always preferred to negotiate with Arab states individually and previous peace talks have shown that the devil is in the detail.
Syria, whose Golan Heights was seized by Israel in the 1967 war, has already held peace talks with Israel. They broke down in 2000 at an advanced stage despite ostensible agreement on some of the biggest issues.
The issue of Palestinian refugees is a complex and emotive one involving not only Israel and the refugees themselves, but the host countries and the Palestinian Authority.
Gerald Steinberg, head of the conflict management programme at Israel's Bar Ilan university said the Arab plan could prove important if Saudi Arabia is serious, but the Palestinians were in no position to compromise on refugees or Jerusalem.
"These are basic identity issues and it is not a matter of simply drawing a line and saying we will trade off some metres here and some metres there," he said.
"The engagement of identity issues has not begun in the last 60 years, it is not going to happen overnight no matter how good this initiative is." (Additional reporting by Jonathan Saul in Jerusalem) Source
Arabs revived at an Arab summit on Thursday their 2002 offer to the Jewish state of normal ties with Arab countries in return for full withdrawal from land it occupied in 1967, a "just solution" for Palestinian refugees and a Palestinian state.
Israel rejected the plan in 2002 but Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said the Riyadh summit was "serious" and he was ready to talk peace with Saudi Arabia and other U.S. allies. The U.N. chief showed up to back the plan, and Washington, which is trying to revive the peace process, said it was "very positive."
Analysts said it was a good step, when measured against the usual Arab inaction, but there was a long way to go and a lot of creative diplomacy needed to bring about historic compromises that have eluded generations of statesmen and peace brokers.
"I think there will be a concerted effort to make this work ... but it will come up against the same obstacles as previous efforts, namely whether Israel is willing to withdraw to 1967 boundaries or not," said Mouin Rabbani, Amman-based senior analyst at the International Crisis Group.
"At present, I don't think there is any real evidence this U.S. administration is one that will enforce the principle of full peace for full withdrawal."
Analysts also cast doubt on Olmert's ability to muster public support for any dramatic peace moves, given that backing for his government has plummetted since last year's inconclusive Lebanon war.
INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS?
The U.S. administration has shown little interest in advancing Middle East peace through much of George W. Bush's presidency, but has recently made renewed efforts.
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has regularly toured the Middle East, and recently secured agreement on regular meetings between Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Washington says the Arabs should use the opportunity to engage Israel.
This time, however, Arabs are trying to make their own opportunities. Whereas in 2002, the Arabs did little to market their plan, this time, they have set up a committee led by U.S.-ally Saudi Arabia to follow it up, possibly paving the way for Arab states that have no ties to Israel to open up channels.
Israel has acknowledged the potential for talks with Saudi Arabia, but analysts and diplomats say the kingdom, home to Islam's holiest shrines and already under attack from al Qaeda for its pro-Western policies, will have to tread carefully. Direct meetings with Israel are unlikely soon.
While Israel has long called for talks on the terms of peace, for Arab League countries, only three of which have full diplomatic ties with Israel, just talking comes with a price.
Israel has objections to most of the key elements of the Arab plan, including the proposed return to de facto frontiers that existed before the 1967 war, the right of return for Palestinians displaced with the creation of Israel in 1948 and the fate of Arab East Jerusalem, annexed by Israel in 1967.
Those are issues Sunni-led Arab states feel they cannot give up. But U.S. failure to pacify Iraq and the spread of Shi'ite Muslim Iran's influence in Lebanon, Iraq and the Palestinian territories has damaged American prestige in the Arab world.
Few Arabs believe this U.S. administration, which is close to Israel and faces strong opposition at home, has either the will or the ability to resolve the historic conflict.
"We have an international quartet of the United States, United Nations, Russia and the EU and that didn't go anywhere," said Rime Allaf, at Chatham House think-tank in London.
"The fact that they (Arabs) relaunched this initiative without any significant changes means that they do not expect much ... The Israelis have rejected this before so I don't think it is going to go very far."
DEEP DIVISIONS
Israel's response aside, Arabs themselves are not all agreed on the principles the Arab peace initiative endorses.
Hamas, the Islamist group heading the Palestinian government, is uneasy about the plan's failure to explicitly endorse the refugees' right to return to homes lost after the creation of Israel.
Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal agreed in pre-summit meetings with Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah not to openly oppose the initiative but politicians who attended the summit say the right of return was a bone of contention for Palestinians.
Several Damascus-based Palestinian groups who oppose the Palestinian peace accords with Israel also condemned the plan.
And while Arab states agreed to revive the plan unchanged, any alterations that come through future talks would have to be reapproved and that could unravel the united Arab front Saudi Arabia wants to lead, analysts say. After all, Israel has always preferred to negotiate with Arab states individually and previous peace talks have shown that the devil is in the detail.
Syria, whose Golan Heights was seized by Israel in the 1967 war, has already held peace talks with Israel. They broke down in 2000 at an advanced stage despite ostensible agreement on some of the biggest issues.
The issue of Palestinian refugees is a complex and emotive one involving not only Israel and the refugees themselves, but the host countries and the Palestinian Authority.
Gerald Steinberg, head of the conflict management programme at Israel's Bar Ilan university said the Arab plan could prove important if Saudi Arabia is serious, but the Palestinians were in no position to compromise on refugees or Jerusalem.
"These are basic identity issues and it is not a matter of simply drawing a line and saying we will trade off some metres here and some metres there," he said.
"The engagement of identity issues has not begun in the last 60 years, it is not going to happen overnight no matter how good this initiative is." (Additional reporting by Jonathan Saul in Jerusalem) Source
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